Alabama’s first legislative session for the Republican supermajority produced a controversial immigration law and deep cuts to state agencies and their employees’ benefits.

Now, with the 2012 session about to begin with a gaping hole in the General Fund, Republicans face the challenge of governing under strict constitutional restrictions. That, observers say, will be the measure of whether Republicans can move past being the political outsiders of the past 136 years.

“If you’re the outsider looking in, the problems are easier to solve,” said Jess Brown, professor of political science at Athens State University. “But when you get in the room and have to manage the competing sides, well, rhetoric sure is easier than governing.”

Republicans took complete control of Alabama government in the 2010 elections, creating a supermajority in the House and Senate.

For the first time since Reconstruction, Democrats are essentially shut out of the legislative process.

The competing sides, as Brown describes them, include the Business Council of Alabama, ALFA, Alabama Education Association and a host of lobbyists representing special interests who have a stake in the end result of the legislative process.

The controversial immigration law, the strictest in the country, is being challenged in federal court and has met with disapproval from Republican Attorney General Luther Strange. A study published last week by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Alabama estimates the bill will cost the state billions of dollars in lost income from illegal immigrants, lost tax income and related costs. Provisions of the bill have wreaked confusion in courthouses across the state, and raised the ire of farmers who depend on immigrants to harvest crops.

Senator Arthur Orr, R-Decatur, said portions of the bill likely will be rewritten this year.

House Speaker Mike Hubbard, R-Auburn, said the most important lesson of the 2011 session was to more carefully vet bills.

“We want to make sure we are more in tune with some of the consequences that happen in some bills that are unintended,” he said.

This year, budgets will be the key issue. The General Fund could have a deficit of more than $400 million with no visible means of filling the gap without raising taxes, which is unlikely.

With no apparent source of new revenue in sight, Orr, chairman of the Senate Finance and Taxation General Fund Committee, said the leadership will look for ways to consolidate state agencies with similar missions as a way to cut costs and improve efficiency. “Those studies are going on right now,” he said.

Even with consolidations, more cuts are on the way.

“Unfortunately, it’s going to be a process of most every agency receiving a cut of some type,” Orr said. “It’s just a question of how much.”

Orr said tax increases aren’t likely, either. “Governor (Robert) Bentley has promised to veto any tax increases sent to him, so that will be taken into account.”

Budgets test those in power

The issue will certainly test the leadership abilities of those in power.

“When this new crop of Republicans got to Montgomery, I think they were surprised by how little they could do with the budgets due to constitutional restraints,” said Shannon Bridgmon, political science professor at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. More than 80 percent of taxes collected in Alabama are earmarked for specific funds.

“They are trying to throw off any constraints they can,” Bridgmon said. “They’re not going to back off from this, but I think they will be more strategic about it this time.”

Hubbard said legislators are waiting for Bentley’s budget recommendations, but one of this year’s priorities will be targeting government waste and inefficiency.

“We’re going to make good on our promise to make government as efficient as possible, which will mean reorganizing and maybe consolidating some government agencies,” he said. “We may even do away with some agencies.”

Hubbard said all options for financing government operations will be considered during the session. Will raising taxes be one of the options?

“I’m not keen on a tax increase,” he said. “In this economy, it is the worst time in the world for a tax increase. If that’s on the table, it’s right on the edge.”

In the 2011 session, funding was slashed to every state agency. But the lingering effects of the Great Recession and the heavy reliance on sales taxes have made matters worse. Most in Montgomery agree there are few places left to cut funding this year.

“We had $3.2 billion in (federal) stimulus money and we spent that, and we also spent rainy day fund money and we must repay that in six years by law,” said

Rep. Lynn Greer, R-Rogersville, a member of the House Ways and Means General Fund Committee.

“There is no movement to raise taxes, except the cigarette tax, and I don’t know how far that will get,” Greer said. “These are tough days.”

Gov. Bentley’s proposal to combine the General Fund and Education budgets met rejection from the leadership of his own party, and his proposal to pass a $2 billion bond issue devoted primarily to roads is getting a lukewarm reception from fellow Republicans.

Democrats struggle

Democrats lost so many seats in both houses that they could not slow legislation during the 2011 session. But Rep. Craig Ford, D-Gadsden, House minority leader, said that could change this year.

“We have enough votes in the House with a coalition of Republicans that we can block some of the legislation,” he said. “Some of the Republicans who made votes last year that attacked educators went back home and got hammered. Now, they are trying to undo some of what they did last year. We’ve built a bridge with enough members of the Republican caucus that are willing to support us on some key votes.”

One of the most common complaints by Democrats from 2011’s session is that Senate Republicans, especially, cut off debate too quickly, which they say led to the deeply flawed immigration bill, an ethics law that is being revisited and other measures that are expected to be tweaked to stave off lawsuits.

“If they had debated the bills longer, there would have been fewer problems in them,” agreed Bill Stewart, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Alabama.

Orr countered that many Democrats voted for the immigration bill. “If they had such great concerns, they could have voted against it,” he said.

Sen. Tammy Irons, D-Florence, said a big portion of the upcoming legislative session will be spent correcting mistakes made in 2011 in the Republicans’ haste to pass bills.

“Part of our problem in this state is our lack of leadership,” Irons said. “I hope a lesson has been learned from the last session. Running the session as a dictatorship and ramming bills through without debate is not good for Alabama. Had they just allowed more debate, it could have kept bad bills from passing that are now costing us millions of dollars. I am hopeful they won’t do it all again this session just because they can.”

If Ford is correct in his assessment of a bipartisan coalition in the House, the legislative process could slow.

Will Republicans stay united?

But a coalition might not be necessary to moderate the leadership.

“I think splits will inevitably occur in the Republican ranks,” Stewart said. “I expect to see that discipline won’t prevail all the time.”

Brown, of Athens State, agrees. He said Republican lawmakers steeped in party rhetoric will have to answer to constituents back home when philosophy clashes with local interests.

“In competitive legislative districts, people will look back and ask how well the Republicans governed,” he said.

The Democratic Party will have to undergo a rebuilding process, and its success, according to Stewart, will depend on whether it can appeal to young voters.

“The young people I talk to are not attracted to the Democratic Party,” he said. “They feel it has old leadership and is not looking to the future, just hanging on to the past.

“I’m afraid the Democratic Party here in Alabama is going to be in the minority for quite awhile,” Stewart said. “The ideology of the party is not popular with the majority of the population, which is white and conservative.”

Democrats are not taking their status as the minority lightly. Sen. Roger Bedford, D-Russellville, who is Senate minority leader, said he has a good working relationship with his Republican counterparts, and talented Democrats are in the Legislature.

“Influence comes from knowing the subject matter, knowing the rules and being honest with people,” he said. “It doesn’t mean you will always agree, but there is too much partisanship.”

State Rep. Marcel Black, D-Tuscumbia, said Democrats who have leadership capabilities have, for the most part, been pushed to the background.

“You can’t really say there are any (power brokers) among the Democrats, although there is a lot of ability there,” Black said. “But with the numbers the way they are, Democrats do not have that opportunity.”

Speaker Hubbard said he is committed to guaranteeing ample time for debate on legislation and allowing Democrats to have their say.

“I understand the rights of the minority, having been there so long,” he said.

For now, the power appears to be in the hands of the Republican legislative leadership. Hubbard may be the most powerful of all, according to observers, in part because he is closely aligned with former Gov. Bob Riley, who still welds influence.

Republicans could find themselves in the position held for more than a century by Democrats — the only political party in Alabama that matters. Whether Democrats can reclaim a place at the governing table remains to be seen.

“Government works best when you have strong two-party competition,” Bridgmon said. “We had one party for decades. Alabamians must figure out if they want to go back to that with the other party.”

Robert Palmer can be reached at 256-740-5720 or robert.palmer@TimesDaily.com.

Capital clout

The power structure in state government has shifted significantly since Republicans captured control of the House, Senate and governor’s office in the 2010 elections. Here are 10 of the biggest power brokers dealing with state government today.

Robert Bentley

Governor

Few legislators consider him a powerful governor. His clout appears to be limited to determining which industrial development projects receive money, which road projects proceed, and similar issues.

Rep. Craig Ford, D-Gadsden; House minority leader

Ford has become the voice of the greatly weakened Democratic Party in Alabama. His outgoing personality and fiery rhetoric guarantee that Democrats will at least be heard in the Legislature.

Sen. Del Marsh, R-Anniston; president pro tem of Senate

Influences which bills are allowed to make it to the Senate floor and then controls the amount of debate bills receive.

Will Brooke, Immediate past chairman, Business Council of Alabama

With Republicans controlling the Legislature, the BCA has become the most powerful lobbying group in Montgomery. Brooke is a venture capitalist well connected with money interests. With its influence, BCA is spearheading legislation for tax incentives for businesses.

Rep. Mike Hubbard, R-Auburn; Speaker of the House

Democrats and Republicans alike say he’s the most powerful person in Montgomery. When he was executive director of the state Republican Party, he helped elect numerous freshman legislators who demonstrated loyalty to him in 2011. He is bright, knows the political game and isn’t afraid to use his clout.

Bob Riley, Lobbyist and former Republican governor

In an unprecedented move after the 2010 elections, he helped organize the House and Senate, which involved choosing chairmen of critical committees. That took away influence from incoming Gov. Robert Bentley. Among his clients as a lobbyist: advocates of charter schools, which will be a hot issue this session.

David Bronner, CEO, Retirement Systems of Alabama

Although under attack from some Republicans who want to appoint board members to oversee RSA, Bronner’s track record as top industrial developer in Alabama solidifies his power. He represents 170,000 state workers and 100,000 retirees and has grown RSA funds from $500 million to $25 billion.

Henry Mabry, Executive secretary, Alabama Education Association

Despite Republican moves to weaken AEA’s power, Mabry is in position to influence education issues. He represents a huge block of potential voters in AEA’s 103,000 current members and retirees. In his first year as Paul Hubbert’s replacement, it remains unknown whether he can lead effectively.

Luther Strange, Attorney general

He has tried to keep his Republican comrades in the Legislature from being sued over the state’s immigration law. He is also being counted on to help Alabama reach a hefty settlement with BP as reimbursement from the oil spill off the Gulf Coast. That money could help fill holes in the 2013 General Fund budget.